With Perez out of way, Ferrari are “ready to attack” Verstappen in Austria · RaceFans

If there is one valid criticism to have of F1’s still-young sprint race format, it’s that the 100km race on Saturday can often take away some of the mystery and intrigue ahead of a grand prix.

When the results of Saturday’s sprint race set the grid for Sunday’s grand prix, it would effectively form the first 100km of a 400km two-part race. That meant that drivers, teams and fans all had a fairly solid idea as to how the rest of the race would play out, having seen who looked strong and not so strong in race conditions.

But with the revised format for 2023, where the sprint race is set by its own qualifying session and has no bearing on the starting order for the grand prix, there are far fewer concrete conclusions that can be drawn from what happens on Saturday. And when it rains, as it did at the Red Bull Ring, there is even less that can be drawn from the first race of the weekend.

One conclusion which can be drawn – which no one needed a sprint race to discover – is that Max Verstappen and Red Bull are going to be very tough to beat yet again. Once Verstappen reclaimed the lead from team mate Sergio Perez on the opening lap, he quickly re-established his dominance over him and everyone else.

Even when Perez eventually got ahead of Nico Hulkenberg to take second place Verstappen’s lead continued to grow by another 12 seconds over the second half of the race. At the chequered flag 21 seconds separated them.

But if Perez was not much of a concern for his team mate in the sprint race after the first few corners, he’s likely to be even less of a factor on Sunday, given that he starts down from 15th on the grid. Instead, Verstappen will face a double threat from a pair of Ferraris starting immediately behind him on the grid – just as he did here last season.

Ferrari are desperate to prove they have made serious strides with their car with their recent upgrades and now have the perfect opportunity to do just that by taking the fight directly to Verstappen and Red Bull at their own circuit.

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Last year, Verstappen beat the Ferraris in the sprint race but Sunday was a different matter entirely. Leclerc caught and passed Verstappen no fewer than three times to take what would be his and Ferrari’s latest win to date. But despite those happy memories and a renewed confidence following a frustrating start to the 2023 season, Leclerc does not expect to have as strong a chance of catching Verstappen as he did last year.

“I would be very surprised if we are doing the same race as last year,” Leclerc said. “I hope so, and will do absolutely everything for this, but I will be very surprised if we’ve got as good of a pace as last year.”

Leclerc will not be the only Ferrari driver with Verstappen in his sights. Despite being beaten to second on the grid in qualifying on Friday, Sainz was comfortably the stronger of the two Ferrari drivers during sprint day and says he’s heading into the grand prix with more confidence that he has all season.

“I’ve been very comfortable, especially today,” he said. “Since the first lap of quali – which was actually my only lap of SQ1 – I looked very quick. I’m very at ease with the car and kept the feeling through in the wet. Hopefully tomorrow in the dry, I confirm the step and we can be strong in the whole race.”

When it comes to tyres, the three softest compounds in Pirelli’s range will be available to the drivers. On Friday, high track temperatures hovering around 50 degrees had an effect on drivers’ rubber, leading to George Russell describing the degradation they experienced as “pretty bad”. That suggests that the chances of anyone going for a heroic one-stop strategy with a marathon first or second stint – akin to that Alexander Albon and Williams pulled off in Montreal – is off the cards. Something Pirelli’s chief F1 engineer Simone Berra agrees with.

“From what we’ve seen, the degradation was quite high,” Berra confirmed on Friday after the sole practice session and grand prix qualifying were both run entirely in the dry. “But in free practice, you have a green track.

“We had high track temperatures – we don’t know if on Sunday we will have similar temperatures, probably slightly lower. But from the numbers that we have, it’s probably a two-stop race. On paper it should be quicker, as it was last season.”

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Last year, the vast majority opted to start on the medium C4 tyres for the start of the race, switching to the hard tyres during their first stops which averaged around lap 17 or 18. Most then chose a second set of hards to see them to the chequered flag. However a late Virtual Safety Car for Sainz’s Ferrari spontaneously combusting prompting Leclerc and Verstappen to make third stops. Throughout the field, not a single driver ran a single lap on the soft tyres during the race.

Having battled through sprint race qualifying and the sprint race itself in tricky conditions where the track was damp throughout both sessions, you could forgive the drivers for hoping for a dry 71 laps tomorrow. But while it cannot be guaranteed that it will be a dry race, there is currently less than a 20% risk of rain falling during the two hour window in which the race is due to take place.

Leclerc, especially, will be eager for the rain to stay away. He struggled to get his Ferrari into a comfortable window with his intermediates in the sprint race on a drying track and admits he will be concerned if he faces similar conditions on Sunday.

“If it does rain – again in those half-dry, half-wet conditions – yes,” he said. “If it’s full-dry or full-wet, no, because I know that in those conditions we are strong and I feel good. But it’s more in these in-between conditions that we are struggling.”

With it looking like it’s more likely to be a dry race, Ferrari have their best opportunity of the season so far to take the fight to Verstappen and Red Bull. But while victory is always the goal, Sainz says he recognises how strong the scale of the challenge is for him and his team mate.

“Never say never, but you know how tricky it will be,” said Sainz. “We are in a good position though with two cars right behind him and ready to attack.”

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Qualifying times in full

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Sector times

Speed trap

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Over to you

Is there any realistic threat to another victory for Max Verstappen? Have Ferrari finally got on top of their tyre degradation woes?

Share your views on the Austrian Grand Prix in the comments.

2023 Austrian Grand Prix

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